[This story came out when DoorDems.org was deep into rebuilding. It is too good not to share.]
This county backed every president for two decades. What about 2024?
Story by Danielle Paquette and Sabrina Rodriguez
Photography by Carolyn Van Houten
Updated June 9 at 10:47 a.m.
Originally published June 8, 2023
DOOR COUNTY, Wis. — Imelda Delchambre used to offer her spare bedroom to fellow Latinos looking for work in this corner of northeast Wisconsin, but these days, she said, there are too many newcomers to host.
The number of people calling the Hispanic Resource Center to ask about a job or a housing lead has surged threefold over the past year, she estimated — the highest level of interest since she began steering the nonprofit nearly two decades ago.
It’s more evidence, she said, of the shifting demographics on the overwhelmingly White peninsula between Green Bay and Lake Michigan known as the “Cape Cod of the Midwest.” Residents once joked that “diversity” meant a variety of Scandinavian heritages. Then the 2020 Census found that the area’s modest Hispanic population had climbed by almost 70 percent over the previous 10 years, a figure Delchambre suspects is an undercount.
“I can’t keep up with everyone moving here anymore,” she said.
The influx of job seekers from Mexico and other Latin American countries, she thinks, could help ease what officials say is one of the area’s most urgent problems: a labor shortage so severe that a coffee shop, convenience store and gym in her area, among other establishments, are prone to closing early.
Delchambre estimates that the number of people calling the Hispanic Resource Center to ask about a job or a housing lead has surged threefold over the past year.
Some of her neighbors, however, say they perceive migrants as lawbreakers who could be dangerous. When worries about “the border” come up, people aren’t talking about the boundary just north with Canada.
“All eyes are on Wisconsin, and it’s a very exciting time to be in Door County.”
— Kris Sadur, chair of the Door County Democrats
The discussions are playing out in a region where the stark political split offers a telling gauge of the national mood: Situated in what is expected to be a key 2024 battleground state, Door is one of nine counties across the country that have backed the presidential winner in every election since 2000.
“We voted for Bush twice, Obama twice, the other guy and Joe Biden — hopefully Joe Biden twice,” Kris Sadur, chair of the Door County Democrats, said at a May pie-auction fundraiser, prompting chuckles. “All eyes are on Wisconsin, and it’s a very exciting time to be in Door County.”
In interviews this spring, 18 months before the 2024 election, residents across the political spectrum said they harbored doubts about the front-runners. Democrats expressed concerns about President Biden’s age and his handling of the rising prices of everyday goods. Republicans, irked by former president Donald Trump’s erratic behavior, said they desired a more even-keeled candidate.
These sentiments squared with the latest national survey from Marquette Law School, which found that although Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) had slight leads over Biden, more Americans held negative than positive views of all three candidates, and most Democrats said they didn’t want to see Biden run again.
While lukewarm about the candidates, Door County residents were animated by issues closer to home — a persistent labor shortage, an affordable-housing crunch and demographic change in this community of about 30,000. Conservatives said inflation and border security have worsened under Biden, asserting that unvetted outsiders could bring drugs and violence. Liberals said the administration hasn’t done enough to create legal pathways for migrants to work in the United States, stifling opportunity and industry.
The tensions brewing here reflect a broader national debate on how theUnited States should address its overwhelmed immigration system, especially at a time when there are nearly twice as many open jobs as unemployed people looking for work.
How many times has your county picked the winner of the presidential election?
Delchambre, a Democrat who voted for Biden in 2020, isn’t sure whether she’ll back him a second time — and if she does, it wouldn’t be enthusiastically. Everything seems more expensive, she lamented, and what has he accomplished for people trying to make it in America?
Many newcomers reaching out to her could barely afford the basics, and topping the list of needs was shelter. She had just heard that a proposal for workforce housing in Door County had been shot down — even though officials said a dearth of starter homes was scaring away younger prospective hires and blue-collar families. Too often, the options were budget-crushing rent, an hour-plus commute or rough conditions.
“Hola,” Delchambre said, picking up her iPhone.
A woman who had come last year from Mexico was seven months pregnant. She needed her help.
Shaped by new arrivals
Farming, manufacturing and tourism — all fields bolstered by newcomers — have shaped Door County. Over the years, seasonal laborers transformed the region into one of the country’s biggest cherry suppliers. Out-of-town recruits have filled shipyards in Sturgeon Bay, the county seat, constructing military vessels during World War II and, more recently, a superyacht that Italy confiscated last year from a Russian oligarch. The peninsula’s quaint beach towns and forest trails draw admirers from Milwaukee, Chicago and other blue cities — many of whom have snapped up vacation homes or opted to retire here.
The result: a reliably purple region.
In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Door County by 292 votes. Four years earlier, Trump bested Hillary Clinton by 558 votes, and four years before that, President Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 1,229 votes. (While The Post’s analysis of bellwether counties focused on election results since 2000, Door’s streak goes back to 1996, when the county voted for President Bill Clinton.)
The county’s bellwether status has applied to state races, too. A majority of voters in April supported Democratic-backed judge Janet Protasiewicz, whose victory flipped control of the state Supreme Court to liberals. In the 2022 midterms, Gov. Tony Evers (D) and Sen. Ron Johnson (R) both prevailed by slim margins here and in the state overall.
“We’re kind of an indicator of what’s going to happen,” said Stephanie Soucek, chairwoman of the Republican Party of Door County. “It makes me nervous to see the results here. More pressure on us.”
Door County is about 93 percent White, according to the latest census data, with Hispanics, the second-largest ethnic group, representing 4 percent of the population. There’s no decisive political majority, and independents command significant sway.
In conversations this spring, residents debated the factors driving inflation and the fate of Wisconsin’s near-total ban on abortion, which, thanks to the newly elected judge’s tiebreaking vote, could now be overturned as early as next year.
As the weather warmed, signaling the start of prime tourist season, job postings proliferated online: condo repairman, dishwasher, food runner, busser, boat tour guide — the list stretched on.
[The Story Continues – using these quotes by county residents:]
“Housing is our number one impediment.” — Michelle Lawrie, Door County’s top economic official
“We need good people” — Gary Federwitz, a sales engineer
“I’m done with the belligerence.” — Dennis Statz says of Donald Trump’s demeanor
‘My tribe, your tribe’ — Mike Niss, sick of hearing the same message
“People think the worst when it comes to these types of developments — worst-case scenarios.” — Mike Niss, who sought to create more workforce housing in Door County
“Trying to make it in ‘God’s country’” — Imelda Delchambre, 70, who came here for a job
“All the politicians promise to do something.” — Imelda Delchambre
“I think things were better under Trump.” — Suri Saray Gutierrez, who moved to Door County four years ago
[Part two of this article will publish Thursday, September 14th]
About our Bellwether County series
Why we’re doing this series
As part of coverage exploring the views of voters in advance of the 2024 election, The Washington Post will be regularly reporting on a county that has backed every presidential winner since 2000: Door County, Wis. The margins in this region of northeast Wisconsin have historically been narrow. In 2020, Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by 292 votes here, and four years earlier, Donald Trump bested Hillary Clinton by 558 votes.
How we chose Door County
Door is one of nine counties across the country that has backed every presidential winner since 2000, and is situated in what is expected to once again be a key battleground state. The other bellwether counties are Delaware’s Kent; Minnesota’s Clay; Montana’s Blaine; New Hampshire’s Hillsborough; New York’s Essex and Saratoga; Virginia’s Chesapeake; and Washington’s Clallam.
How we reported this story
During their visit to Door County in May, national correspondent Danielle Paquette, national politics reporter Sabrina Rodriguez and staff photojournalist Carolyn Van Houten visited residents across the region, stayed at an inn and sheep farm, waded into Lake Michigan and attended a pie auction.
